There is a struggle in the Arab Islamic world
between two blocs:
The first one is consisted of Egypt, Saudi Arabia
and the United Arab Emirates, while the second is made up of Turkey and Qatar.
The first bloc supports the strong regimes in the
region, while the second bloc wants to launch the second wave of the Arab
Spring, and to pave the way for the Islamists to finally gain power (as in
Tunisia recently).
The second bloc has witnessed in recent years a
series of failed attempts, specifically since the June 30 revolution as well as
the Russian military and diplomatic successes in Syria. Doha, and Ankara, seem to
want to reassert their influence in the region, which has exacerbated the
current Sunni divide.
In this context, Turkish President Erdogan announced
that he is ready to send forces to assist the government of national
reconciliation led by Fayez al-Sarraj in Tripoli (and supported by the Muslim
Brotherhood) to confront the attack of Marshal Haftar.
This statement raised great concerns among the
international community. The question remains, can Turkey embark on this
adventure? The answer is no!
Even if Turkish parliamentarians allow Erdogan to
intervene militarily in Libya, as happened last Thursday, the political
opposition in Turkey is resolutely opposed to such an adventure. While the
"new sultan" has strengthened his authority since the coup attempt in
July 2016, he has been isolated internally (for example, his party was recently
defeated in the Istanbul municipal elections).
Another reason that impedes Turkey's desire to
invade Libya is its economic situation, which is experiencing its worst
conditions despite the Qatari financial support. Since Donald Trump's arrival
at the White House, American policy in Libya has changed. The American
President has stated publicly that he prefers having a Libyan Marshall at the
head of the country rather than chaos or an Islamic-led country! Thus, Trump
condemned Erdogan and threatened economic sanctions if Turkey interfered in
Libya.
Haftar controls more than two-thirds of the country.
He controls the oil-rich areas. Finally, Haftar is very popular with the vast
majority of Libyans who are tired of chaos. The Libyan National Army has
managed to win the support of the country's main tribes, which are key to a
future solution to the conflict.
On the military level, Haftar benefited from the
support of France and Egypt (which also threatened to intervene if Ankara
implemented its threat), Saudi Arabia led by Muhammad bin Salman, the United
Arab Emirates and also Israel, which recently signed a historic gas agreement
with Turkey's opponents, Greece and Cyprus! finally.
Hifter is presented as a Moscow man! Indeed,
Russia supports the Libyan marshal militarily and sends him weapons, drones,
advisers and even private militia!
Any Turkish intervention in Libya would have a very
bad impact in the Arab world, especially for historical reasons (the Ottoman
occupation). The League of Arab States will inevitably condemn this
intervention.
Algeria (another partner of Moscow) has put its army
on alert at the border ... It would not be in the interests of Erdogan, who is
diplomatically isolated in Europe and within NATO, to get into trouble with the
Russian partner.
It is clear that there is a relationship between the
attack of Bashar Al-Assad and his ally Putin in Syria on the last enclave of
rebels in Idlib and Turkey's recent attempts to expand its influence in the
Mediterranean region.
Erdogan is trying to move the last Syrian jihadist
to the Libyan theater before the city fell. The announcement of his intention
to intervene directly to support Tripoli is certainly a way to reassure and
motivate the Islamists.
Erdogan and his army really ready to go to Libya?
Are they ready to oppose the Russian army again? Not sure about that. Let's get
carried away by delusions. After the Syrian file is partially settled and in
the current regional context (Europe’s deficit, support for Trump, Egypt, the
United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Algeria, and Israel), Russia may be able to
repeat the scenario of September 30, 2015, but this time ... in Libya!
